Attrition of Households and Individuals in Panel Surveys

Attrition is mostly caused by not contacted or refusing sample members. On one hand it is well-known that reasons to attrite due to non-contact are different from those that are due to refusal. On the other hand does non-contact most probably affect household attrition, while refusal can be effective on both households and individuals. In this article, attrition on both the household and (conditional on household participation) the individual level is analysed in three panel surveys from the Cross National Equivalent File (CNEF): the German Socio- Economic Panel (GSOEP), the British Household Panel Study (BHPS), and the Swiss Household Panel (SHP). To follow households over time we use a common rule in all three surveys. First, we find different attrition magnitudes and patterns both across the surveys and also on the household and the individual level. Second, there is more evidence for reinforced rather than compensated household level selection effects if the individual level is also taken into account.CNEF, individual attrition, household attrition, attrition bias, reference person, household head

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Does Unemployment Hurt Less if There Is More of It Around?: A Panel Analysis of Life Satisfaction in Germany and Switzerland

This paper examines the existence of a habituation effect to unemployment: Do the unemployed suffer less from job loss if unemployment is more widespread, if their own unemployment lasts longer and if unemployment is a recurrent experience? The underlying idea is that unemployment hysteresis may operate through a sociological channel: if many people in the community lose their job and remain unemployed over an extended period, the psychological cost of beingunemployed diminishes and the pressure to accept a new job declines. We analyze this question with individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2009) and the Swiss Household Panel (2000-2009). We find no evidence for a mitigating effect of high surrounding unemployment on unemployed individuals' subjective well-being: Becoming unemployed hurts as much when regional unemployment is high as when it is low. Likewise, the strongly harmful impact of being unemployed on well-being does not wear off over time, nor do repeated episodes of unemployment make it any better. It thus appears doubtful that an unemployment shock becomes persistent because the unemployed become used to, and hence reasonably content with, being without a job.Subjective well-being, unemployment, hysteresis, happiness, social norm

Measuring and Explaining the Increase of Travel Distance: A Multilevel Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sectional Travel Surveys

Structural and behavioural factors drive the growth and change of spatial mobility in the industrialised countries: on the macro level we have observed tremendous increases in travel demand as measured by person miles travelled. This paper studies this development of mobility of tripmaking adult persons on working days by analysing micro data as it is provided by the four National Travel Surveys (NTS) that were conducted in Germany since the mid seventies. In order to fully capture the context which determines individual behaviour, we account for the nested hierarchy of persons within households within spatial settings by using a multilevel modelling approach. In addition we investigate the prediction power of a few classic socio-demographic variables for the daily travel distance of individuals in the four data sets. We find that after controlling for the covariates considered, the total variance of daily travel distance decreases over time, this decrease stemming both from the INDIVIDUAL and the HOUSEHOLD level. We further find that traditional socio-demographic household and person characteristics diminish in importance to explain person mileage. Significance and amount of the variance components taken together indicate some AREA level effect and strong HOUSEHOLD level context effects on individual daily distance. Thus it is important to consider all conceptual levels which generate significant variation in the mobility indicator under study.

Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel

'In diesem Artikel werden Ausmaß und Selektivität der Panelattrition im Schweizer Haushalt Panel zwischen den Wellen zwei (2000) und sieben (2005) untersucht. Die Stichprobenbasis bilden die Teilnehmer der ersten Welle (1999). Nach einem Vergleich der Höhe und der Selektivität der Attrition mit anderen Haushaltpanels wird die Selektivität in zwei Schritten modelliert: zunächst durch Übergangsmodelle, in denen jeweils zwei aufeinanderfolgende Wellen verwendet werden, und schließlich durch ein Längsschnittmodell unter Verwendung aller Wellen. Letzteres enthält Wellendummies. Die Übergangsmodelle dienen dazu, Selektivität zu identifizieren und weiterzuverfolgen, d.h. zu erkennen, ob sich eine initiale Selektivität im Laufe der Zeit verstärkt oder ausgleicht. Mit dem Längsschnittmodell können spezifische Effekte von Kovariaten in einzelnen Wellen untersucht werden, wobei die Basisattrition kontrolliert wird. Insbesondere können die Auswirkungen einzelner Panelereignisse analysiert werden. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen bisherige Erkenntnisse aus der Literatur: Personen, die aus dem Panel aussteigen sind tendenziell jünger und männlich, Ausländer, mit geringem sozialen und politischen Interesse und Engagement, die mit verschiedenen Lebensaspekten Unzufriedenen, die in Haushalten mit hohem Unit-Nonresponse lebenden und diejenigen mit schlechterer Befragungsqualität. Dieses Muster bleibt im Lauf des Panels bestehen. Die hohe Attrition in zwei Panelwellen, die vermutlich von singulären Ereignissen herrühren, ist nicht übermäßig selektiv.' (Autorenreferat)'In this paper, we analyze magnitude and possible selectivity of attrition in first wave respondents in the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), from wave two (2000) through wave seven (2005). After comparing attrition of first wave respondents with that of other panel surveys, we proceed to model selectivity of attrition in two steps: we first build separate wave to-wave models, and second a longitudinal all-wave model. The latter model includes wave interaction effects. The first models allow for tracing of selectivity development, i.e. whether an initial selectivity might compensate or cumulates over time, the second to assessing the effects of the covariates in a specific wave, controlling for the base attrition effect. In particular it allows for the analysis of consequences due to discrete fieldwork events. Our results support the findings in the literature: attritors are in general the younger people and the males, foreigners, the socially and politically 'excluded', i.e. those who show little social and political interest and participation, those who are mostly dissatisfied with various aspects in their life, and those who live in households with high unit nonresponse, and who exhibit a worse reporting behavior. This pattern is rather cumulative than compensating over panel waves. Excessive attrition in two waves presumably caused by two discrete events in the panel is not particularly selective. Still existing variation in selective attrition is worth to be further explored.' (author's abstract)

Panel surveys: advantages and disadvantages compared with repeated cross-sectional surveys

In this guide, we describe characteristics of probability-based, scientific social science panel surveysand compare them with cross-sectional surveys in terms of data collectionand analysis potential. While panel surveys have analytical advantages for describing individual dynamics andconductingcausal analyses, they arealsomore expensive than repeated cross-sectional surveys and require considerable efforts to keep data quality high

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the QS-approach to modelling age specific fertility rates -

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution

Building a Panel Survey on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe

Ageing is one of the greatest social and economic challenges of the 21st century in Europe. SHARE, a EU-sponsored project that will build up a Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe, will be a fundamental resource for science and public policy to help mastering this unprecedented challenge. The main aim of SHARE is to create a pan-European interdisciplinary panel data set covering persons aged 50 and over. The project brings together many disciplines, including epidemiology, sociology, statistics, psychology, demography, and economics. Scientists from some 15 countries work on feasibility studies, experiments, and instrument development, culminating in a survey of about 22.000 individuals. The multidisciplinary nature of the data will provide new insights in the complex interactions between economic, health, psychological and social factors determining the quality of life of the elderly.

The Working Class Left Behind ? The Class Gap in Life Satisfaction in Germany and Switzerland over the Last Decades

The 1990s and 2000s were a gloomy period for Germany’s working class, hit by mass unemployment, welfare retrenchment and wage stagnation. We examine whether the growing economic disparity between the top and the bottom of Germany’s class structure was accompanied by a widening class gap in life satisfaction. We analyse whether there is a social class gradient in life satisfaction and whether, over the last decades, this class gradient increased in Germany, relative to the comparison case of Switzerland. We use panel data for Germany (1984–2014) and Switzerland (2000–2015) and check the robustness of our results by replicating our analysis with the pooled German and Swiss samples of the European Social Survey (2002–2014). In both countries, respondents in higher classes report substantially higher life satisfaction than those in lower classes. The class gap is twice as large in Germany than in Switzerland. In Germany, the class gap in life satisfaction narrowed between 1984 and 1990, strongly widened between 1990 and 2005 and then decreased again after 2010. In Switzerland, the class gap did not follow a clear time trend, but remained basically constant. In Germany, differences in unemployment risks and household income account for half of the class gap and its evolution over time

Does Unemployment Hurt Less if There is More of it Around? A Panel Analysis of Life Satisfaction in Germany and Switzerland

This article examines the existence of a habituation effect to unemployment: Does the subjective well-being of unemployed people decline less if unemployment is more widespread? The underlying idea is that unemployment hysteresis may operate through a sociological channel: if many people in the community lose their job and remain unemployed over an extended period, the psychological cost of being unemployed diminishes, and the pressure to accept a new job declines. We analyse this question with individual-level data from the German socio-economic panel (1984-2010) and the Swiss household panel (2000-2010). Our fixed-effects estimates show no evidence for a mitigating effect of high surrounding unemployment on the subjective well-being of the unemployed. Becoming unemployed hurts as much when regional unemployment is high as when it is low. Likewise, the strongly harmful impact of being unemployed on well-being neither wears off over time, nor do repeated episodes of unemployment make it any better. It thus appears doubtful that an unemployment shock becomes persistent because the unemployed becomes used to, and hence reasonably content with, being without a jo